A scenario-based robust multi-objective framework for climate-resilient water-energy systems in conflict-affected regions

Planning sustainable and resilient water-energy systems under bounding climate scenarios requires innovative frameworks capable of guiding renewable energy integration while balancing complex, conflicting humanitarian objectives. This study introduces the Scenario-Based Robust Multi-Objective Framework (SBR-MOF), a novel integration of established optimization methodologies tailored to address this challenge. The SBR-MOF employs a Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) to systematically co-optimize five distinct objective categories: Economic, environmental, vulnerability, resilience, and service reliability while mathematically embedding stakeholder preferences through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). To rigorously validate the computational mechanics and applied utility of this theoretical architecture, a data-scarce water supply network in conflict-affected Northwest Syria is utilized as a real-world testbed under CMIP6 climate projections. The model identified an optimal base-case solution achieving 92.97 % demand satisfaction with a 40.90 % renewable energy share. Crucially, comparative analysis revealed that while the robust solution requires a financial premium to embed latent adaptive capacity under baseline conditions, it actively prevents catastrophic system failure under severe climate stress (SSP5-8.5). Under these extreme conditions, the robust strategy maintained 92.97 % demand satisfaction, whereas traditional deterministic planning models collapsed to a 78.50 % service rate. Furthermore, the testbed application yielded a critical localized insight: within structurally degraded networks, economic policy levers, such as shortage penalties and water extraction costs, strongly influence system viability and renewable energy adoption far more than variations in physical climate parameters. Ultimately, the SBR-MOF is presented as an applied MILP-based decision-support tool, enabling policymakers in volatile contexts to navigate complex infrastructural trade-offs and advance climate-resilient water security.