Macroeconomic, digital and environmental drivers of tourism demand in low-arrival countries: Implications for sustainable development

Tourism demand plays a critical role in employment generation, economic growth, and foreign exchange earnings, particularly in economies with limited external income sources. Despite the global expansion of tourism, several countries continue to experience persistently low levels of international visitor arrivals. Understanding the determinants of tourism demand in these low-arrival economies is therefore essential for inclusive and sustainable development. This study examines the impact of inflation, exchange rates, internet usage, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, and per capita GDP on tourism demand across 20 low tourist arrival countries over the period 2010–2023. A panel regression framework, complimented by cross-country multiple linear regression, is employed to analyse these relationships. The indicate that exchange rate movements and per capita GDP are positively associated with tourism demand, reflecting the roles of price competitiveness and economic capacity. In contrast, the effects of CO₂ emissions, internet usage, and inflation are heterogeneous and context-dependent, highlighting variations in environmental conditions, digital readiness, and macroeconomic stability. Overall, the results underscore the importance of context-specific tourism strategies in low-arrival economies. From a sustainability perspective, the findings reveal trade-offs between economic competitiveness, digital expansion, and environmental pressures, emphasising the need for policies that balance short-term tourism growth with long-term sustainable development objectives.