Arrested development: analyzing popular resistance against the arrest of war-criminals in DR Congo and Liberia

International war crimes trials have become a common feature of post–civil war politics, sparking debate about the effectiveness of such interventions. A key shortcoming in the literature is its neglect of the critical moment when wartime leaders are arrested and that such incarcerations sometimes trigger public resistance that can put peace at risk. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on war crime tribunals by asking: when and how do subelites mobilize followers to protest the arrest of former wartime leaders? Drawing on insights from the protest movement literature, we hold that large-scale protests often require elite involvement. We argue that demonstrations are especially likely when subelites possess limited autonomy in the aftermath of war—lacking independent sources of financing and constrained by identity politics. In such contexts, the cost of remaining passive is high, compelling subelites to mobilize protests to maintain their standing among followers. To assess this argument, we compare the incarcerations of Jean-Pierre Bemba in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Charles Taylor in Liberia. Our analysis draws on original, in-depth interviews with key informants in both countries. The paper contributes by unpacking the conditions under which local actors contest international criminal justice interventions.