S3 - Counterfactual Manipulation Test (Scoping Note)

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22823826
Primary Topic
Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

S3 - Counterfactual Manipulation Test (Scoping Note)

Adrian St Vaughan
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance
article

S3 - Counterfactual Manipulation Test (Scoping Note)

Adrian St Vaughan
article en

Abstract

Scoping note for the counterfactual citation-responsiveness test of the Correspondence Auditor (companion to "Reliable verdicts, unreliable rationales", v3.0-preprint). Design pre-specified before execution: in five Apollo insider-trading cases (four F2-SUPPORTED targets plus one construction-sanity control), the insider-tip message is neutralized while the trade and dialogue are held byte-identical; Stage 1 tests whether the F2 predicate flips SUPPORTED→CONTRADICTED at Gate B, Stage 2 whether Gate C still cites F2. Hypotheses, interpretation matrix (including "quote laundering" as a named third outcome), and a pre-run lexical validation gate are pre-specified. Execution pending the predicate-decomposition software update; the experiment's own pre-registration will be deposited before execution. Contributions: the study concept and the heuristic caveat were proposed by Eugene Chan; the study design, case set, and interpretation matrix were developed by Adrian St Vaughan.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Source BioScience (United Kingdom) (GB)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance
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S3 - Counterfactual Manipulation Test (Scoping Note) — Adrian St Vaughan · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS