INFLUENCE OF ETHNIC POLITICS ON ETHNIC CONFLICT AND STATE STABILITY IN LAKES STATE, SOUTH SUDAN: A CONVERGENT MIXED-METHODS ANALYSIS

This study examined the influence of ethnic politics on ethnic conflict and state stability in Lakes State, South Sudan, where recurring intercommunal violence intersects with political competition, ethnic mobilisation and contested access to public authority. A convergent mixed-methods design was employed over the period 2020 to 2024. From a target population of 320,229 adults across the state’s eight counties, a sample of 400 was determined using Yamane’s formula, and 372 usable questionnaires were retained (93.0%). Twenty-two key informant interviews and six focus group discussions involving 52 participants were conducted between October 2024 and February 2025. Eight five-point Likert items measured ethnic politics (α = .876) and ten measured state stability (α = .903). Quantitative data were analysed in SPSS version 26 using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression, while qualitative data were analysed thematically. Respondents strongly perceived ethnic politics as pervasive (M = 4.11, SD = 1.04), with the highest endorsement recorded for the view that politics in South Sudan is influenced by ethnic politics (M = 4.30, SD = 0.97), followed by political conflict associated with community displacement (M = 4.21, SD = 1.01) and the linkage between political instability and ongoing ethnic conflicts (M = 4.15, SD = 1.04). Nepotistic appointments and voting along ethnic lines were the most frequently observed manifestations. Ethnic politics was negatively and significantly correlated with state stability (r = -.602, p < .01) and remained a statistically significant negative predictor in the four-predictor regression model (B = -.342, β = -.318, p < .001), which explained 64.7% of the variance in state stability jointly. Qualitative evidence showed that respondents associated ethnic politics with nepotistic appointments, mobilisation of youth militias, electoral mobilisation, resource diversion and the use of ethnic and clan calculations in public decisions. The study concludes that politicized ethnicity constituted a major perceived destabilizing factor in Lakes State and that strengthening state stability requires institutional measures that constrain ethnic patronage, improve merit and accountability in public appointments, support equitable political participation and reduce the mobilization of ethnic identity for political advantage.