Large emission mitigation potential from sequencing fossil fuel extraction infrastructure retirement in China

China's fossil fuel infrastructure could lock in substantial emissions across both extraction and downstream use, making a well-defined phaseout strategy urgent for achieving carbon neutrality. We analyze the differences between the current retirement strategy and the proposed emission-oriented retirement sequencing strategy by quantifying the emission mitigation effect, employment benefit, and cost-saving advantage of strategies. We show that China's fossil fuel emissions totaled 9,850 MtCO 2 e in 2023 and are projected to reach 98.9–148.5 GtCO 2 e cumulatively during 2024–2050 under existing plans across energy-demand scenarios. Strategically sequencing retirements could avoid a cumulative 3.8–4.8 GtCO 2 e by 2050, more than annual European emissions, while simultaneously increasing employment by 4–6 million full-time equivalent-years and reducing net total system costs by 245–507 billion CNY (around 34–71 billion USD). These results highlight the climate, economic, and social benefits of sequencing-based phaseout strategies.