LAB #2381 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.2% to 37.8% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 31.2% to 37.8% (+6.6pp, n=98) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter to the 10 live trades above would have blocked all entries, since every trade occurred in either ACCUMULATION or MARKUP phases (based on the dates and the fact that none were flagged as distribution). That means the filter would have eliminated 6 losses and 4 wins, removing the entire sample. Net PnL delta would be zero (no trades taken), but the win rate would become undefined (0/0) — not an improvement. The backtest's +6.6pp gain is not observable in this window because the filter would have stopped all activity, not just bad trades. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a strict DISTRIBUTION-only filter would drastically reduce trade frequency (likely >80% of signals suppressed), concentrating only on late-cycle reversals. The backtest's n=98 is small a Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com