The Knowledge Half-Life Theory of Education: Re-conceptualizing Human Capital Development in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

AbstractEducational qualifications record achievement at a particular time, while the conditions in which knowledge is applied continue to change. This paper develops the Knowledge Half-Life Theory of Education (KHTE) as a proposed framework for aligning educational renewal with changes in the practical relevance of knowledge. It argues that artificial intelligence can alter task requirements and the value of particular competencies, but that these effects are uneven and do not imply a universal rate of knowledge decay. The framework distinguishes epistemic revision, occupational obsolescence, individual forgetting, and changes in citation attention. Its central proposition is that persistent gaps emerge when the time required to recognise a changed requirement, revise learning provision and demonstrate updated competence exceeds the time within which existing capability becomes inadequate. Continuous capability renewal is proposed as an institutional response that combines durable disciplinary foundations with targeted learning, authentic assessment and equitable access. The paper situates the proposal alongside human capital scholarship, research on changing job skills, and existing discussion of knowledge half-lives. It develops five testable propositions and an illustrative research design for Barbados and the wider Caribbean. No original data are reported, and no numerical half-life is estimated. The contribution is an educational framework for investigating the timing and distribution of renewal, rather than an established law of knowledge obsolescence.This paper develops the conceptual argument in the author’s LinkedIn article dated 6 July 2026. The present version adds definitions, research propositions, and a proposed evaluation design.