Prevalence of Malaria and Climate Change in District Sohbatpur, Balochistan

Abstract: - This study identifies the malaria prevalence and estimate its association with climatic situations, including temperature, rainfall, and humidity, in the three-year post-flood period (2023-2025) in District Sohbatpur. The study was done using a retrospective observational cohort study based on secondary data (DHIS-2 system of District Headquarter Hospital Sohbatpur) and primary data (structured questionnaire). Meteorological information was available in online climatic databases. To assess patterns and correlations between the malaria incidence and climatic variables, descriptive statistics and regression analysis were used. A total of 242,799 people were tested with 66,893 confirmed cases. Test Positivity Rate (TPR) fell in 2023 to 40.55% in 2025 which shows a decrease in the total malaria burden. Nevertheless, the rate of Plasmodium falciparum rose to 63.9% as compared to 47.2% with a decline in Plasmodium vivax and mixed infections. The male percentage was 50.40% indicating occupational exposure. There was a high seasonality in malaria incidence, which was highest during the times of increased temperature and rainfall. The highest increase in transmission occurred at temperatures above 20-25°C with moderate humidity contributing to the survival of the vectors. Regression analysis showed that the temperature, rainfall, and malaria incidence were meaningfully associated.The prevalence of malaria decreased overall, but the proportion of the more serious P. falciparum is increasing, reflecting a changing epidemiological trend. Climatic conditions, and especially temperature and rainfall are very critical in transmission. The concept of climate-informed surveillance and intervention strategies is key to effective malaria control in susceptible post-disaster environments such as Sohbatpur.