MODEL ADOPTION #2392: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% t — E8 Intelligence Research
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the phase-distance TIGHT (≤2°) filter is not compatible with E8 geometry timing as a standalone rule; it lacks a causal mechanism tied to the Gods-Clock rhythm and is a statistical artifact risk. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain of +4.4pp is within noise (±3–5pp CI) and likely overfit to a 434-sample backtest; applying it would cut trade frequency by 20–35%, reducing statistical power and net PnL per unit time, especially if it removes high-RR trades (e.g., EURJPY SHORT win). RISK: Phase distance is a derived metric that drifts with market regime (trending vs. ranging); the 2° threshold will become stale, and the filter will systematically exclude entries that E8 timing would otherwise validate, degrading model adaptability and increasing variance on a smaller sample. TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a walk-forward backtest on the last 12 months in 3-month blocks, requiring the +4.4pp to persist in at least 3 of 4 blocks AND sh Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-18
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22824599
- Primary Topic
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Type
- preprint