Labor Markets, Financial Crises, and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries*

We document the macroeconomic patterns that characterize labor market recovery from financial crises. Using a sample of postwar recession episodes from around the world, we show that financial crises are typically followed by jobless recoveries, with a sluggish recovery in employment relative to output. A departure from this empirical regularity occurs in emerging-market crises with high inflation, which feature strong employment recoveries but persistent declines in real wages and result in “wageless recoveries.” Our findings highlight the central role of financial components in labor input costs and nominal wage rigidities in shaping labor market dynamics following economic crises.

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Publication Details

Journal
Bank of Canada Research
Published
2026-09-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2026-31
Primary Topic
Economic Theory and Policy
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Labor Markets, Financial Crises, and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries*

Pablo Ottonello, Emilio Colombi, Guillermo Calvo, Fabrizio Coricelli
Bank of Canada Research
Economic Theory and Policy
article

Labor Markets, Financial Crises, and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries*

Pablo Ottonello, Emilio Colombi, Guillermo Calvo, Fabrizio Coricelli
article en

Abstract

We document the macroeconomic patterns that characterize labor market recovery from financial crises. Using a sample of postwar recession episodes from around the world, we show that financial crises are typically followed by jobless recoveries, with a sluggish recovery in employment relative to output. A departure from this empirical regularity occurs in emerging-market crises with high inflation, which feature strong employment recoveries but persistent declines in real wages and result in “wageless recoveries.” Our findings highlight the central role of financial components in labor input costs and nominal wage rigidities in shaping labor market dynamics following economic crises.

Bank of Canada Research
Bank of Canada (CA)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Economic Theory and Policy
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