Exogenous Shocks and Perceived Inequality: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine War

This study examines how two major exogenous shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, are associated with variations in perceived serious personal financial consequences across socioeconomic groups. Using cross-national survey data from the Eurobarometer, the analysis shows that individuals with lower educational attainment, lower perceived social status, and greater financial strain are more likely to report severe financial consequences. During the COVID-19 pandemic, perceptions of adaptation to containment measures and satisfaction with government responses are systematically associated with lower reported financial consequences, while concerns about inflation and unemployment are strongly associated with perceived financial hardship in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. The findings suggest that socioeconomically vulnerable groups are more likely to perceive stronger financial consequences, patterns not fully captured by objective economic indicators. This highlights the need for policy responses that consider differential perceptions of vulnerability alongside material outcomes.