Elites and institutional legacies: The political explanations for Libya’s transition

Research on post-2011 Middle East and North Africa transitions has examined divergent regional trajectories, but little explains what follows complete institutional collapse in conflict-affected settings, or how domestic political factors shape such paths. This article addresses that gap by analysing how domestic political factors shaped political uncertainty in Libya’s post-2011 transition. It draws on qualitative content analysis and 26 semi-structured interviews with Libyan political actors, tracing three domestic factors through distinct causal pathways. Elite reproduction, the retention of former Gaddafi regime members in key positions, was necessary but not sufficient, becoming consequential only when combined with alliances between former elites and non-state armed groups. Constitutional weakness was a contributory factor, generating ambiguities that elites exploited to contest authority and delay elections. Early elections were a secondary factor, contributing to provincial fragmentation without driving the broader trajectory. These findings advance debates on how domestic political factors interact with security dynamics in conflict-affected transitions.