Future Mediterranean agrivoltaics: prospective life cycle assessment under climatic and socio-economic scenarios

Agrivoltaic (AV) systems co-produce crops and solar electricity and are gaining attention as dual-purpose land solutions under climate change. This study conducts a prospective, spatially explicit consequential life cycle assessment of AV deployment for wheat production in Southern Europe focusing on climate change impacts, uniquely distinguishing between two economic logics: electricity-demand-driven and crop-demand-driven deployment. Under electricity-driven deployments, AV systems can reduce impacts compared to photovoltaics in high solar yield regions such as southern Spain but may increase impacts elsewhere due to material intensity and limited agronomic gains. By contrast, crop-driven AV deployment—motivated by rising food demand—can deliver strong climate benefits by substituting high-emission electricity, particularly in regions with low wheat yields but high solar output. These benefits, however, diminish as electricity mixes decarbonize. By integrating climate, agronomic, and economic uncertainties, this study offers critical insights for guiding sustainable AV development and policy in climate-vulnerable regions.