Benchmarking informal mobility in Africa: Evidence from Kigali for inclusive transportation planning

Urban mobility in sub-Saharan African cities is shaped by the widespread presence of informal transport services, yet their operational performance and spatial role remain insufficiently quantified. This study analyzes approximately 5 million motorbike taxi trips and 80,000 ride-hailing car trips in Kigali, Rwanda, to benchmark major transport modes across operational, spatial, and socio-economic dimensions. Motorbike taxis travel 16.5% faster than ride-hailing cars during peak hours and involve substantially shorter waiting times, making them the most effective option among commonly used public transport modes once waiting time is incorporated into travel performance. Ride-hailing cars are significantly more expensive and spatially concentrated, while buses lose efficiency due to long waiting times. Spatial connectivity metrics show that motorbike taxi trips connect a larger number of locations across the city, whereas ride-hailing flows distribute demand more evenly across a smaller set of connections. Regression analysis further reveals distinct spatial correlates for the two services. Nighttime light radiance strongly predicts ride-hailing activity ( R 2 = 0.77 for origins and 0.82 for destinations), while population density better explains motorbike taxi origin activity. Infrastructure variables substantially improve model performance for ride-hailing services, with improvements in origin models roughly nine times larger than for motorbike taxis, suggesting that ride-hailing activity is more closely associated with highly electrified, economically intensive urban areas with dense road infrastructure. Our results provide empirical evidence on how formal and informal services jointly shape urban accessibility, offering guidance for inclusive transportation planning and intelligent transportation systems in rapidly growing African cities.