Agricultural insurance and agri-food value chain resilience in China: the role of rural industrial integration

Climate change and market volatility have heightened the vulnerability of agri-food value chains to recurrent shocks. Using a balanced panel of 31 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2023, this study examines the association between agricultural insurance coverage and agri-food value chain resilience, as well as the potential transmission role of rural industrial integration. Multidimensional indices are constructed for insurance coverage and resilience, with resilience comprising resistance, recovery and reconfiguration, adaptation, and sustainability. Two-way fixed-effects estimates reveal a positive and statistically significant association: a one-standard-deviation increase in insurance coverage is associated with an approximately one-quarter-standard-deviation increase in resilience. The results remain robust to alternative inference procedures and lagged specifications, and are positive across all four resilience dimensions. Moran’s I indicates significant spatial clustering, while Spatial Durbin Model estimates suggest a positive cross-provincial spatial association. The estimated indirect effect through rural industrial integration is positive, but its bootstrap confidence interval includes zero. Heterogeneity analysis reveals positive associations in production and consumption zones and a stronger association in developed provinces, but no clear association in balanced zones. These findings highlight agricultural insurance as a potential instrument for value chain risk governance, while underscoring the need for stronger causal identification and direct value-chain evidence.