Breaking through the dilemmas: pathways for natural gas distributed energy development under China’s dual carbon goals

Natural gas distributed energy (NGDE), characterized by an integrated energy utilization efficiency exceeding 70%, low carbon emissions, and rapid start–stop capabilities, offers a critical pathway for achieving China’s dual carbon goals. This paper establishes a unified framework through which to perform a system analysis for exploring the potential dilemmas involved in the development process of NGDE in China and investigating viable pathways to promoting the development of NGDE under China’s dual carbon goals. The results show that the critical dilemmas of NGDE in China include high gas-fired electricity costs, gas supply security challenges due to high import dependence, incomplete grid integration mechanisms, and undiversified business models. Based on these findings, possible pathways for fostering the large–scale development of NGDE in China have been determined, including enhancing gas supply security, optimizing pricing mechanisms, diversifying market models, and advancing technological integration. The study argues that during the critical window of the 15th Five–Year Plan for Building a New Energy System, NGDE must move beyond a pure substitution mindset toward a synergy mindset that emphasizes deep integration with renewable energy. In this context, it should position itself as a flexible peaking support and integrated energy supply solution within the new power system, contributing to carbon neutrality efforts in countries such as China.