Drought dynamics and climatic drivers in the Tarim Basin using remote sensing indices and pixel-wise machine learning

Abstract Drought characterization in hyper-arid endorheic basins requires multi-index approaches that capture distinct hydrometeorological processes. This study investigates spatio-temporal drought dynamics in the Tarim Basin (TB)—China’s largest inland arid region—using two complementary remote sensing indices: the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) for landscape-scale moisture and the Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) for agricultural drought. Based on 2000–2024 remote sensing and meteorological data, we employed a pixel-wise Random Forest framework with spatial cross-validation and permutation importance analysis to quantify climatic drivers across the TB. Results reveal a fundamental “core-periphery” dichotomy: TVDI identifies persistent extreme drought in the Taklamakan Desert core, while CWSI reveals alleviating water stress in peripheral oasis farmlands (73.21% showing significant decrease, p < 0.05). Despite regional warming-wetting trends, TVDI exhibited an insignificant decrease (54.72% of the basin), contrasting with CWSI's significant agricultural drought alleviation. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD)—a key atmospheric dryness indicator—exhibited high relative permutation importance for both drought indices (72–75%), considerably exceeding the values obtained for precipitation (6–8%) within the Tarim Basin. Secondary drivers diverge by land surface type: TVDI responds to Relative Humidity (8.2%) and Precipitation (6.1%), while CWSI is modulated by Land Surface Temperature (9.4%) and Sunshine Hours (7.8%). Partial correlation analyses controlling for topography and temperature confirm VPD’s independent effect on drought severity. Large-scale climate oscillations, particularly the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and ENSO-PDO interactions, significantly modulate interannual drought variability (r = 0.74–0.75, p < 0.01). This study provides the first pixel-scale quantification of the relative dominance of atmospheric water demand over precipitation in driving drought evolution in the Tarim Basin, with VPD contributing 72–75% of the total permutation importance compared to 6–8% for precipitation. This quantitative benchmark offers actionable parameters for drought monitoring systems in arid regions and underscores the need to integrate VPD and large-scale climate signals into early warning frameworks.