Can Maize Compete with Paddy? A Scenario-based Assessment of Profitability and Sustainability in Punjab

The dominance of the paddy–wheat cropping system in Punjab ensured food security but resulted in serious environmental issues, including rapid groundwater depletion and severe air pollution from paddy residue burning. Maize ( Zea mays L.) offers a promising diversification alternative, requiring 40%–50% less water and eliminating residue burning. However, its economic viability compared to paddy is constrained by yield gaps, price volatility and institutional support skewed towards rice. This study assessed the competitiveness of maize against paddy across three dimensions: (a) cost and return analysis, (b) estimation of water and carbon footprints based on primary survey data from 240 farmers in Punjab (2021–2022) and (c) scenario-based profitability simulations under varying yield and price conditions. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) with Tukey’s honestly significant difference (HSD) test was applied for comparative analysis across cost, return and environmental footprint variables. Results showed that maize grain has a 40% lower water footprint (WF) and a 75% lower carbon footprint compared to paddy, with fodder maize exhibiting even greater environmental advantages. Economically, maize grain remained less profitable than paddy under current conditions, with the profitability gap persisting even at the minimum support price (MSP). Scenario analysis indicated that PMH 14, a high-yielding variety (24.8 q/acre), has the potential to bridge this profitability gap, making maize more profitable than paddy by ₹7,809/acre at current prices in the selected districts, though realizing such yields in farmers’ fields would require effective extension services, timely access to quality inputs and supportive institutional arrangements. This advantage was also contingent on maintaining yield differentials and improvements in paddy yields, and the price would correspondingly reduce or eliminate this margin. These findings suggested that sustainable diversification requires a dual policy strategy: (a) accelerating varietal adoption through targeted extension and input access, alongside strengthening grain and fodder value chains, and (b) institutional support systems to address market risks and ensure farm-level feasibility, thereby enabling environmentally sustainable crop diversification in Punjab. JEL Classification: C83, D40, D81, O13, Q00