Gross Agricultural Emissions and Unequal Mitigation Pathways in the Brazilian Legal Amazon: Implications for Climate Justice and the Sustainable Development Goals

ABSTRACT Climate mitigation policies in the Brazilian Legal Amazon have largely focused on aggregate or net emissions, providing limited evidence on how gross agricultural emissions reveal the intensity of productive emission sources independently of carbon removals. This gap constrains the development of territorially differentiated policies capable of advancing climate action, environmental conservation and social equity. This study analyses the dynamic relationships among gross agricultural emissions, deforestation, forest cover and population across 760 municipalities in the Brazilian Legal Amazon between 1990 and 2023, discussing implications for climate mitigation and climate justice. By focusing on gross rather than net emissions, the analysis isolates the productive component of greenhouse gas emissions and identifies municipalities where agricultural activities exert greater climate pressure regardless of carbon sequestration capacity. A Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model is employed to examine dynamic interactions among the variables. Results indicate strong persistence in gross agricultural emissions, a robust bidirectional relationship between emissions and deforestation, and limited short‐run effects of forest cover and population. These findings show that agricultural production systems and land‐use change reinforce heterogeneous emission trajectories across municipalities, reflecting unequal mitigation capacities and territorial conditions. Although climate justice is not directly measured, the study provides empirical evidence of territorial asymmetries shaping mitigation pathways and highlights the need for differentiated policies integrating low‐carbon agriculture, forest conservation and governance. The study demonstrates that gross agricultural emissions complement net emissions by revealing structural drivers and spatial inequalities influencing climate mitigation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon.