Control without credibility: immigration to the UK since the Brexit referendum

Immigration was central both to the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign and to the political narratives that followed it. Yet the trajectory of migration to the UK since the referendum bears little resemblance to the expectations – or promises – articulated at the time. This paper explores the analytical distinction between formal control over the rules governing migration and the much more limited ability of governments to determine the resulting volume of migration. It provides an overview and interpretation of developments since 2016, focusing on three interrelated themes. First, it describes trends in migration flows and stocks, highlighting the sharp fall in EU migration, the compensating increase in non-EU migration, and the role of both policy and economic developments in driving these trends. Second, it examines the economic and labour market impacts of these changes over 2016–2025. Third, it analyses the post-Brexit policy framework and the Labour government's approach since 2024. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implications for future UK migration policy and for the wider political economy of Brexit.