Lease a battery electric vehicle now or later? An empirical analysis

While the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market faces uncertainty in the United States, especially regarding adoption timing, leasing has become a popular alternative to purchasing, accounting for approximately 60% of new BEVs in 2025. However, the literature rarely distinguishes between the determinants of BEV adoption across these two business models or treats leasing as a distinct adoption pathway, nor examines how these determinants may vary across different BEV adoption timeframes. This paper addresses these gaps by conducting a stated preference survey with 671 participants, who had never leased or owned a BEV. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests suggested statistical differences in leasing and purchasing intentions. Multivariate ordered probit models were estimated to assess BEV leasing or purchasing intentions at 1, 2, 3, 5, and 8 years from the time of the survey. Results indicate that at more distant future timeframes, BEV lease intentions become more strongly associated with public charging infrastructure, unlike BEV purchase intentions. Additionally, results indicate that gender significantly predicts purchase intentions only, although the gender gap narrows as technology matures. These findings offer valuable insights for stakeholders aiming to boost BEV adoption, informing the best timing of policy decisions and strategies tailored to each adoption determinant.