Decarbonization and the Rescaling of Water–Energy Bargaining: How Renewable Expansion Is Reshaping Iran–Iraq–Türkiye Transboundary Water Politics

ABSTRACT This article examines how renewable‐energy expansion is changing water–energy bargaining among Iran, Iraq, and Türkiye in the Tigris–Euphrates basin. Much of the existing literature on transboundary water politics focuses on territorial control, upstream–downstream power asymmetries, legal rules, and hydro‐hegemony but gives less attention to how energy transitions change the sources of leverage among riparian states. Using a qualitative comparative approach, the article draws on academic literature, policy documents, energy‐sector reports, and regional infrastructure data to show how decarbonization is shifting bargaining away from direct control over rivers alone and toward wider struggles over electricity systems, grid connectivity, renewable‐energy investment, and infrastructure coordination. The article argues that renewable expansion may reduce some forms of hydropower‐based leverage, but it also creates new dependencies linked to electricity trade, financing, technical capacity, and cross‐border coordination. These shifts do not eliminate hydropolitical tensions. Instead, they change where and how those tensions appear, producing new mixtures of cooperation and competition. By linking energy‐transition politics to transboundary water governance, the article contributes to debates on hydro‐hegemony, water–energy nexus governance, and regional energy security and shows how uneven decarbonization can redistribute bargaining power beyond the water sector.