Mapping and monitoring land usage changes of gum Arabic belt in armed conflict-disturbed areas to support sustainable management of the belt

Abstract The Gum Arabic Belt (GAB) in Sudan play a key role in sustaining rural livelihoods, supporting biodiversity, and delivering essential ecosystem services. However, this fragile dryland ecosystem is increasingly threatened by armed conflict, large-scale displacement, land use changes, and environmental degradation. Therefore, this study assessed the status of GAB and gum production under conflict-induced stressors using an integrated methodology that combines meteorological, remote sensing, and participatory field survey data. Multi-temporal MODIS NDVI data (2000–2023) were analyzed to detect spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover, particularly during peak growing seasons. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trends were evaluated using five-year intervals, except for the last period (2020–2023) to accommodate the eco-anthropogenic signs of the current war. The results reveal that vegetation recovery across large portions of the GAB is correlated with land abandonment due to ongoing conflict and locals’ displacement. Across all assessed years, moderate vegetation class consistently dominated the landscape, particularly in 2020 and 2023, indicating a notable improvement in vegetation cover in recent years. A significant variation was observed in Gum yield, with higher production in 2005. The study underscores the urgent need for target restoration strategies and sustainable management policies. It also demonstrates the value of integrating earth observation data with local knowledge systems for conflict-sensitive environmental monitoring and policy formation in dryland regions.