Coupled socio-ecological feedback mechanisms driving rocky desertification in karst peak-cluster depressions: a system dynamics and scenario analysis approach

Karst peak-cluster depressions are among the most fragile socio-ecological systems, where rocky desertification is shaped by both ecological vulnerability and intensive human disturbance. However, the long-term feedback mechanisms linking socioeconomic development, energy consumption, land-use change and ecological restoration remain insufficiently understood. This study developed a system dynamics model to simulate socio-ecological evolution and rocky desertification dynamics in karst peak-cluster depressions of Southwest China. The model integrated population, economy, social development, energy consumption, land use and ecological governance subsystems, and was calibrated and validated using multi-source data from 2000 to 2022. Five scenarios were designed to represent business-as-usual, economic priority, ecological protection, social development and coordinated development pathways. Historical validation showed good model performance, with mean absolute percentage errors of key variables below 10%. Scenario simulations indicate that rocky desertification dynamics are not driven by ecological restoration alone, but by coupled socioeconomic-energy-land use feedbacks. The ecological protection-oriented pathway did not produce the fastest reduction in rocky desertification, indicating that restoration effectiveness depends on the coordination of ecological measures with socioeconomic transition and land-use restructuring rather than on intervention intensity alone. Sensitivity analysis identified GDP growth rate and energy consumption growth rate as the dominant drivers of system evolution, whereas population growth and construction land expansion showed relatively weaker sensitivity. Land-use simulations further revealed a forestland-dominated but continuously adjusted landscape, characterized by grassland decline and construction land expansion. These findings suggest that sustainable rocky desertification control requires integrated governance combining ecological restoration, low-carbon economic transition, energy-use optimization and coordinated land-use planning.