How circular economy reshapes aluminum demand and carbon emissions in the Chinese automotive sector

Vehicle electrification and lightweighting deepen the automotive sector’s reliance on wrought aluminum alloys. With limited recycling capacity, wrought aluminum supply relies heavily on primary aluminum production, leading to higher embodied carbon emissions. This study investigates the evolution of automotive aluminum use in China from 2015 to 2024, and projects the demand till 2050. The embodied carbon emissions and the mitigation potential of circular economy strategies are assessed under a unified “circular automotive” framework. The results show that by 2050, wrought alloys are projected to account for 66-75% of automotive aluminum demand, driving primary aluminum demand to 6.5-11.4 times the 2015 level. Cumulative embodied carbon emissions are estimated to reach 5,448-9,610 Mt. Circular economy strategies can mitigate such demand, and their joint application potentially reduces aluminum-related embodied carbon emissions to the pre-2024 level. Policy recommendations are thereupon proposed to promote the implementation of these circular economy measures.