LAB #2319 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: BTCUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.5% to 39.2% (+7.7pp, n=51) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: BTCUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.5% to 39.2% (+7.7pp, n=51) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, applying a BTCUSD LONG-only filter would have had **zero direct effect** — none of the 10 listed trades involve BTCUSD. Indirectly, if the filter is meant to gate *all* signals during BTCUSD-long regimes, it would have blocked nothing here, since no BTCUSD trades were taken. The backtest win-rate improvement (+7.7pp, n=51) is statistically weak (n≈51, p≈0.15), and the live window shows no BTCUSD exposure to validate or contradict it. Expected PnL delta in this window: **~0%**. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, if the filter is applied as a *global gate* (only trade when BTCUSD is long), you risk missing high-quality XAUUSD/AUDUSD setups during BTCUSD bear or flat phases — your live book is heavily FX/metals, not crypto. The +7.7pp win-rate gain is likely overfit to a specific reg Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com