COSMIC-005: Dark Energy Trend Persistence in the DESI Five-Year Dataset (Preregistration)
Preregistration of COSMIC Framework prediction COSMIC-005, stated before the DESI five-year (DR3) cosmology analysis is released. The prediction: the dark energy evolution DESI reported in DR1 and DR2 persists and strengthens in DR3. Using DESI BAO with CMB data and no supernovae, DR3's preference for an evolving equation of state over a cosmological constant is higher than DR2's (about 3.1σ), with the best fit staying in the quadrant w0 > −1, wa < 0. No specific parameter values are claimed. The record fixes green, yellow and red outcomes in advance, states what was already public at the time of filing, and names the revision the framework makes if the prediction fails. It is the framework's first formally pre-registered dark energy prediction; the earlier COSMIC-001 is not claimed as prior to DESI DR1 or DR2. Version 1.1 follows a pre-test review on 16 September 2026, before the five-year analysis is public. It adds DESI DR2 Results IV (30 July 2026), which was public before version 1 was deposited and should have been listed; fixes the DR2 baseline at about 3.1σ from DR2 Results II; fixes the CMB combination as the one DESI designates as its baseline; and gives the expected release as 2027, from Fermilab. The claim, the primary measure, the outcome boundaries and the named revision are unchanged. Version 1 remains available unchanged. The Markdown file is the canonical record; its SHA-256 lets anyone confirm a copy is unaltered. The PDF is a formatted rendering of the same text.
Authors
- Michael Baines (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-8084-3870)
Institutions
- Institute of Cancer Research (CA)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-17
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22806153
- Primary Topic
- Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00