MODEL ADOPTION #2326: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.5% to 39.8% — E8 Intelligence Research

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Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22805732
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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preprint

MODEL ADOPTION #2326: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.5% to 39.8% — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

MODEL ADOPTION #2326: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.5% to 39.8% — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No single rule survives — the "min confirmations ≥ 6" filter is a statistical artifact, not an E8-geometry-compatible edge. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain would shrink to ~+2-3pp live (overfit to n=384), while trade count drops >15% — net profit likely flat or negative due to lost compounding and missed early TP2 winners in trends. RISK: Filter removes low-confluence noise entries, but also blocks early momentum winners (e.g., EURJPY short win). In trending regimes, confirmations lag price — you'd systematically exit late or miss entries entirely, degrading the FADE polarity edge that relies on precise E8 rhythm timing, not confirmation counts. TEST: Before any re-consideration, run a 30-day shadow replay on the exact live symbol set (XAUUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY) with identical risk. Log every rejected signal and simulate its 48-hour outcome. Pass criteria: ≥+4pp win-rate improvement AND ≤15% trade reduction, sustained across two consecutive 15-day sub-wind Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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