LAB #2313 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT — improves win rate from 31.5% to 59.4% (+27.9pp, n=170) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT — improves win rate from 31.5% to 59.4% (+27.9pp, n=170) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, no USDCHF trades appear in the list, so this filter would have changed nothing directly. The claimed +27.9pp win-rate improvement comes from a backtest subset (n=170) that is not represented in your live trades — meaning the filter is untested against your actual execution conditions. If it had been active, it would only have suppressed potential USDCHF entries, none of which occurred, so PnL delta is zero. The real risk is that the filter is curve-fit to a small, possibly regime-specific sample. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a USDCHF-SHORT-only filter could improve win rate if the pair's short-side behavior is structurally persistent (e.g., carry or central-bank asymmetry). However, n=170 is small for a 27.9pp claim; typical noise bands are ±8–10pp at that sample size. Th Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com