Predicting disease progression and mortality in prostate cancer using real-world data-driven time-inhomogeneous Markov models

Prostate cancer progression varies across patients. Understanding disease trajectories and mortality risk is important for improved healthcare. This study developed a time-inhomogeneous Markov model using territory-wide electronic medical records from Hong Kong to estimate 10-year disease progression. The model was constructed using data from 3,274 patients newly diagnosed in 2010–2012. Their electronic medical records defined baseline covariates (age, Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI], and prostate-specific antigen [PSA] level) and time-varying health states. Mild cases (age≤65, CCI=0, PSA≤4 ng/mL) were predicted to have 16.9% and 28.0% mortality at five and ten years. Evaluated on an independent 2013 cohort, our model showed strong prediction performance for metastasis-free survival (concordance index [C-index]: 0.780; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.723–0.837) and overall survival (C-index: 0.787; 95% CI: 0.731–0.843), exceeding Cox proportional hazards and random survival forest models. This study provides a pragmatic tool for long-term progression risk prediction and health economic evaluation.