Risk Assessment-Based Premium Rate Determination for Highway Slope Insurance: Method and Application

Premium rate setting is a key technical issue for ensuring the sustainability of highway property insurance. A risk assessment-based premium rate-setting method for natural disaster insurance of highway slopes is proposed, which achieves a long-time balance between insurance claims and premiums and promotes the sustainability of highway insurance. The core of this method lies in quantifying the conditional property losses of highway slopes under natural disasters through risk assessment. By combining this with historical insurance claims data, the probability of disaster losses in the region is estimated, thereby enabling the derivation of appropriate insurance premiums. This method was verified using highway insurance cases in Ningbo. Six slopes with different technical and environmental conditions were selected to validate the calculated slope conditional loss. The disaster loss probability of the slopes in Ningbo is derived from four years of risk assessments and insurance compensation data for the county road insurance in Haishu District, Ningbo. Introducing this disaster loss probability, performing risk assessments and conditional loss estimations for all hazard-prone slopes, a reasonable premium rate for 1,384 km of national and provincial highways in Ningbo is calculated, and the differentiated rates for each sub-region are also obtained.