Wealth to waves: The lag between industrial capacity and sea power in hegemonic transition

Hegemons have inherently been Sea Powers throughout history. Yet, the causal direction and temporal precedence between Hegemony and Sea Power remain underexamined. This study addresses this timing debate. A comparative process analysis of two hegemonic transitions (Britain-U.S. and presumable U.S.-China) notably reveals the initial transition signal emerges not in Naval Power, but within the industrial and material base—specifically, commercial shipbuilding capacity. This signal materializes with a systematic 30-to-40-year lag, exhibiting variations across crisis-driven and peacetime transitions. These findings reconcile Mahan and Kennedy along a historical axis and introduce a forward-looking, testable indicator to Modelski’s framework.