Global spatio-temporal dynamics of Paeonia lactiflora: A dual-track framework linking natural distribution, production zones, and geo-authentic regions

Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of medicinal plant natural distribution and their relationship with geo-authentic production regions is critical for sustainable resource management under climate change. Using Paeonia lactiflora Pall. as a model species, this study investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of suitable habitats and their relationship with production zones and geo-authentic regions. An optimized MaxEnt model combined with spatial analyses was used to evaluate global distribution dynamics, production zones and geo-authentic regions. Results showed that suitable habitats were historically concentrated in East Asia, supporting this region as a potential center of origin. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats are projected to expand globally but contract within China, with a pronounced northeastward shift. Key environmental drivers—including isothermality, mean temperature of wettest quarter, and potential evapotranspiration—defined clear ecological thresholds. Notably, geo-authentic regions largely overlapped with a spatially restricted subset of highly suitable habitats, indicating a spatial association between ecological suitability and traditionally recognized production regions. In conclusion, this study provides an integrated spatial analytical framework linking climate-driven distribution dynamics with the spatial organization of production and geo-authentic regions, offering scientific support for optimizing cultivation strategies, conserving high-quality production areas, and promoting sustainable utilization of medicinal plant resources.