Using Rapid Temperature Falls to Estimate Future Strong Cold Front Frequency in CMIP6 Climate Projections

Abstract We use day‐to‐day falls in daily‐maximum surface air temperature to assess future changes in the frequency of strong cold fronts in a set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate models under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. We find a general decrease in cold front frequency across the Northern Hemisphere, particularly over the oceans, and in the Southern Hemisphere a poleward shift in the region of highest frontal frequency, with increased frequency over midlatitude land regions. The frequency of strong temperature falls correlates positively with the meridional temperature gradient and transient eddy kinetic energy, implicating large‐scale baroclinicity and changes in the storm track influence the pattern of strong cold fronts. Over Southern Hemisphere land areas, this relationship weakens, suggesting the influence of regional thermodynamic processes.