System archetypes shaping e-waste circular economy transitions: A participatory system dynamics study

Socio-technical transitions in e-waste systems are increasingly recognised as a distinct class of technological change, in which the co-evolution of reverse logistics infrastructure, extended producer responsibility regimes, and informal recovery networks determines the pace and direction of circular economy diffusion. Understanding how feedback structures within these systems accelerate or obstruct the scaling of circular technologies is therefore central to designing effective transition interventions. This study examines circular economy transition pathways in Brazil's e-waste sector through the lens of socio-technical change, employing a participatory System Dynamics methodology that integrates co-created causal loop diagrams (CLDs), backcasting exercises anchored to a 2030 normative vision, and archetype analysis. CLDs were developed in a participatory workshop engaging heterogeneous stakeholder groups, including manufacturers, waste cooperatives, policymakers, and industry practitioners operating across Brazil's hybrid extended producer responsibility and informal governance landscape. The diagrams were further validated through multi-round interviews with the same stakeholders. The analysis spans the full product life cycle, from circular design and manufacturing to reverse logistics and end-of-life recovery. This study develops participatory causal loop diagrams that capture how stakeholders represent circular economy dynamics across the manufacturing, policy, and recycling subsystems of the Brazilian e-waste system. It moves beyond causal mapping by identifying system archetypes such as Limits to Growth, Shifting the Burden, Fixes That Fail, and Success to the Successful, which reveal recurrent feedback structures associated with transition bottlenecks, unintended consequences, and persistent coordination failures. Finally, it derives subsystem-specific policy and management implications, showing that circular economy interventions need to be aligned with the distinct structural dynamics that shape each part of the system.