Impact of reverse rural-urban migration on the utilization and conservation of cultivated land: A case study of Xiantao in the Jianghan Plain of China

Reverse rural-urban migration (RRUM) plays a crucial role in optimizing the territorial system of human-environment interaction in rural areas. This phenomenon introduces diverse resource elements crucial for rural development while simultaneously exerting significant impacts on the level of cultivated land utilization (LCLU) and the level of cultivated land conservation (LCLC). However, the mechanisms underlying the RRUM’s influence on cultivated land utilization and conservation remain underexplored. In this paper, we evaluated the changes in the RRUM and the level of cultivated land utilization and conservation in Xiantao City, China, from 2012 to 2021. The results showed that the RRUM in Xiantao City fluctuated along a “W” trajectory. Concurrently, the LCLU and LCLC in Xiantao City demonstrated an upward trend during the study period. In addition to revealing the evolutionary laws, we also examined the driving factors, mechanisms of action, and characteristics of spatiotemporal heterogeneity using the fixed-effect and mediation-effect models. The model results show that RRUM promotes LCLU but exerts a negative effect on LCLC, with these effects operating through differentiated transmission pathways across regions and over time. Overall, industrial promotion and technological progress exhibit heterogeneous mediating effects across spatial and temporal contexts. Moving forward, we contend that moderate RRUM could contribute to the accumulation of human capital in the countryside, benefiting the reverse trend of rural decline and agricultural modernization globally.