Health co-benefits of sustainable dietary transitions to reduced red and processed meat intake in the United Kingdom: a modelling study

PURPOSE: Reducing meat intake and increasing plant-based food consumption are priorities for chronic disease prevention and environmental sustainability across Europe. Previous modelling has outlined how policy interventions could shift dietary patterns to align with meat reduction targets, but the resulting health impacts remain unexplored. METHODS: We quantified the projected health impacts of the UK Climate Change Committee's (CCC) dietary targets-a 35% or 50% reduction in meat consumption-focusing on red and processed meat and substitution with vegetables and legumes, on incidence and mortality of key diet-related chronic diseases over 30 years. Dietary inputs were derived from an agent-based opinion dynamics model parameterised using the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey data, and health impacts were estimated using the IOMLIFET life-table model. RESULTS: Achieving the red and processed meat reduction components of the CCC's targets was associated with a projected increase in life expectancy of 7.2 (1.1-12.9) and 9.4 (1.3-15.4) months and years of life gained of 8.4 (1.3-14.9) and 10.9 (1.5-17.9) million, in the 35% and 50% scenarios, respectively. An estimated 3.4 (0.5-6.6) and 4.5 (0.6-8.1) million chronic disease cases could be averted. Up to 95% of health gains were attributable to cardiovascular outcomes, with three quarters linked to increased vegetable and legume consumption. CONCLUSION: These exploratory estimates suggest policy-driven reductions in red and processed meat aligned with climate goals could deliver substantial public health benefits. While conditional on modelled behavioural trajectories, findings offer relevant insights for European strategies to reduce cardiovascular disease burden and promote sustainable dietary transitions.