Do place-based capital investment policies influence public safety? Evidence from the Opportunity Zones program

The Opportunity Zones program, established under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, is a prominent place-based policy that provides tax benefits for capital investments to foster economic growth and job creation in distressed census tracts. This study examines the relationship between economic conditions and public safety by evaluating the program’s impact in 31 major U.S. cities 7 years after its implementation. Using a propensity score matched difference-in-differences design, the program has had no broad effect on public safety, as evidenced by calls for service, police stops, crime, and arrests. These overall null results do not mask city-specific impacts. However, the safest neighborhoods seem to have driven an increase in construction projects. The results suggest that preexisting public safety conditions are critical to the success of market-driven place-based programs. Public safety is not only an outcome of capital investments but also a requisite that shapes where and when investments occur.