An integrated decision framework for optimizing poultry manure-to-energy systems within a circular bioeconomy under cold-climate conditions

Poultry manure represents an abundant biomass resource with significant potential for renewable energy production; however, identifying the optimal energy recovery pathway remains challenging because of variations in feedstock characteristics, conversion technologies, and climatic-conditions. Existing research evaluates conversion pathways in isolation, rarely integrates environmental and economic performance within a decision-support tool, and seldom accounts for feedstock-specific differences between manure types or cold-climate-specific energy penalties. This study addresses these gaps by integrating physicochemical characterization, life-cycle assessment, and techno-economic assessment into a framework that differentiates between chicken broiler and layer manure and extends the analysis to long-term, cold-climate-specific projections. Results show that broiler manure is better suited for thermochemical conversion, with pyrolysis achieving the lowest aggregated environmental impact (0.7Pt/tonne) and the highest economic return (USD 78.47/tonne). If fully implemented across Canada, pyrolysis of broiler manure could avoid approximately 1,200 million Pt of cumulative environmental impacts by 2050. In contrast, anaerobic digestion provides the highest net-profit for layer manure, whereas hydrothermal liquefaction delivers the best environmental performance. Across the selected cold-climate regions, pyrolysis of broiler manure combined with hydrothermal liquefaction of layer manure could avoid approximately 9,100 million Pt of cumulative environmental impacts by 2050. From an economic-standpoint, the combination of pyrolysis of broiler manure with anaerobic digestion of layer manure proves to be a highly profitable strategy, yielding substantial cumulative net gains over the long term. Sensitivity analysis across scenarios ranging from − 75 % to + 75 % of the baseline confirmed that the projected environmental and economic benefits remain significant under varying future conditions.