Afforestation enhances ecosystem stability in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China, but its effects are constrained by water availability

Abstract The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC), a typical semi-agricultural and semi-pastoral ecologically fragile zone, has long faced controversy over afforestation due to its water-limited environment, raising concerns about how afforestation affects this fragile ecosystem. In this study, based on Google Earth Engine and a Random Forest model, we derive afforestation distribution (1985-2020), and further investigated ecosystem stability under afforestation from the perspectives of short-term responses and long-term dynamic changes. The results showed: (1) By 2020, 67,700 km2 had been afforested in FPENC (6.20% of its area). Afforestation survival strongly depended on precipitation, with relatively low retention rates (40%-70%) in the zones with < 400 mm. (2) At short-term timescales, afforestation mitigated ecosystem state deviations caused by extreme drought events and improved surrounding ecosystems within a 150 m buffer. (3) Over long-term timescales, NDVI across the FPENC exhibited a significant increasing trend over the past four decades, accompanied by an overall enhancement in ecosystem recovery capacity. In zones with > 400 mm annual precipitation and with forest cover exceeding 40%, ecosystem recovery capacity increased significantly, showing there might be a potential linkage among afforestation, precipitation, and ecosystem recovery processes. This study revealed despite water scarcity and low tree survival, afforestation under suitable precipitation can effectively enhance regional ecosystem stability.