The Falsity of Positive Technology Shocks

In mainstream macroeconomic models, random shocks drive economic outcomes. Macroeconomic shocks are typically categorized as positive or negative. However, all shocks are exogenous. Although many types of shocks exist, this article argues that there can be no such thing as a positive technological shock. Research and development are not exogenous. R&D requires savings, entrepreneurial insight, and risk-taking. Even an accidental discovery assumes that someone was using resources while looking for something. Because technological “shocks” require the application of research and development resources, they are not shocks. Thus, there is a flaw in how mainstream models represent growth. This article proposes that a proper theory of economic growth is founded on endogenous microeconomic theory.

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Publication Details

Journal
The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics
Published
2026-09-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.35297/001c.169482
Primary Topic
Economic Growth and Productivity
Type
article
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article

The Falsity of Positive Technology Shocks

Paul Cwik
The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics
Economic Growth and Productivity
article

The Falsity of Positive Technology Shocks

Paul Cwik
article en

Abstract

In mainstream macroeconomic models, random shocks drive economic outcomes. Macroeconomic shocks are typically categorized as positive or negative. However, all shocks are exogenous. Although many types of shocks exist, this article argues that there can be no such thing as a positive technological shock. Research and development are not exogenous. R&D requires savings, entrepreneurial insight, and risk-taking. Even an accidental discovery assumes that someone was using resources while looking for something. Because technological “shocks” require the application of research and development resources, they are not shocks. Thus, there is a flaw in how mainstream models represent growth. This article proposes that a proper theory of economic growth is founded on endogenous microeconomic theory.

The Quarterly Journal of Austrian EconomicsVol. 29(3 (Papers and Proceedings))
University of Mount Olive (US)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
Economic Growth and Productivity
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