Oceanic Drivers of Expected Losses from the Creation of Large-Scale Marine Protected Areas in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean on Commercial Tuna Fleets

There is growing recognition that to achieve ambitious international ocean conservation goals, the methods to develop protected areas and their socio-ecological impacts are as important as the designations themselves. Recent debates about closing large areas to fishing in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETPO) emphasize the need for rigorous tools to guide decision-making and clarify the contribution of specific locations to different fishing sectors under various oceanic conditions. Using a comprehensive and detailed dataset of industrial tuna fishing in the ETPO from 1997-2016, we estimate, with mixed effects models, the varied short-term economic impacts across vessel classes, fishing nations, and oceanic conditions resulting from two potential large-scale fishery closures. Our findings indicate that impacts differ significantly based on vessel size, fishing nation, species, and ocean temperature regime. Short-term losses in expected catch can reach 40 percent for some fleets but are typically around 10 percent. Our methods highlight the heterogeneity and variability in predicted impacts that could illuminate the political economy involved in siting large-scale marine protected areas in the ETPO and other locations.