LAB #2270 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: ETHUSD SHORT — improves win rate from 31.6% to 50.8% (+19.2pp, n=59) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: ETHUSD SHORT — improves win rate from 31.6% to 50.8% (+19.2pp, n=59) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ETHUSD SHORT filter would have had zero impact on the current live window — none of the 10 listed trades involve ETHUSD. The filter is instrument-specific, so it cannot alter the outcomes of XAUUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, or EURJPY positions. Therefore, the live PnL and win-rate over this window remain unchanged. The claimed +19.2pp improvement is purely a backtest artifact on a different asset, not a transferable edge to the current portfolio. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter would only affect future ETHUSD SHORT signals. The backtest improvement (n=59) is a small sample, and the jump from 31.6% to 50.8% suggests possible overfitting to a specific regime (e.g., a trending ETHUSD period). If the filter is simply a market-condition gate (e.g., only short when volatility is Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com