Quantile analysis of green innovation and renewable energy effects on G20 ecological footprint

Abstract This study examines the effects of green technologies (GT) and renewable energy (RE) on the ecological footprint (EFP) at different distribution levels across G20 countries over the period 1992–2021. Utilizing Panel Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (PQQR) and Panel Conditional Quantile (PCQ) models, the results show that GT significantly reduces EFP across most quantiles, with its impact intensifying at higher levels. However, a modest decline in efficacy at the highest quantile suggests possible transitional or scale effects that may temporarily offset environmental benefits. These findings underscore the long-term potential of GT to improve environmental quality, provided that implementation strategies minimize early-stage inefficiencies. Conversely, RE demonstrates a consistent mitigating effect on EFP in the lower and middle quantiles, though its influence weakens and becomes statistically insignificant in the upper quantile. This pattern indicates that RE is more effective under conditions of low to moderate environmental pressure, whereas its standalone capacity to curb ecological degradation diminishes in high-EFP settings. In such contexts, RE should be complemented by broader policy frameworks, including industrial decarbonization and improved energy efficiency measures. Overall, these results highlight the need for differentiated environmental strategies tailored to a country’s ecological footprint, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of GT and RE in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).