LAB #2265 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 37.3% (+5.7pp, n=67) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 37.3% (+5.7pp, n=67) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a NZDUSD LONG-only filter would have zero impact on the current live window, as none of the 10 listed trades involve NZDUSD. Therefore, the +5.7pp win-rate improvement from your backtest (n=67) is not observable here — it neither helps nor hurts this specific sample. The only hypothetical delta would be if the filter had blocked a NZDUSD LONG that was not taken; since none exist, PnL is unchanged. This window provides no evidence for or against the filter. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a NZDUSD LONG-only filter could plausibly add value if the backtest's 37.3% win rate holds out-of-sample, but the sample (n=67) is small and likely overfit to a specific market regime (e.g., NZD strength during a carry unwind). Risk: the filter may simply be selecting for a period of favorable NZD momentum that rev Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com