LAB #2287 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.1 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.1% (+1.6pp, n=160) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) would have excluded trades entering outside that band. In the current 10-trade window, the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries at 4048.74 and 4051.79) and the GBPUSD SHORT loss (entry 1.34508) likely fall outside the 5–10° phase window based on typical rizzy5m entry timing; removing them would flip the window from 5W/5L to 5W/2L (if only those three are excluded), a +3-trade swing. The USDJPY SHORT (open) and EURJPY SHORT (win) might also be affected, but without phase data per trade, the conservative estimate is a win-rate improvement from 50% to ~71% on the remaining trades, with a PnL delta of roughly +2.5R (assuming average loss ≈ 1R). However, this is a tiny sample and the filter's +1.6pp backtest gain is within noise for n=10. OVER-TIME Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22786803
Primary Topic
Military Strategy and Technology
Type
preprint
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LAB #2287 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.1 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Military Strategy and Technology
preprint

LAB #2287 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.1 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.1% (+1.6pp, n=160) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) would have excluded trades entering outside that band. In the current 10-trade window, the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries at 4048.74 and 4051.79) and the GBPUSD SHORT loss (entry 1.34508) likely fall outside the 5–10° phase window based on typical rizzy5m entry timing; removing them would flip the window from 5W/5L to 5W/2L (if only those three are excluded), a +3-trade swing. The USDJPY SHORT (open) and EURJPY SHORT (win) might also be affected, but without phase data per trade, the conservative estimate is a win-rate improvement from 50% to ~71% on the remaining trades, with a PnL delta of roughly +2.5R (assuming average loss ≈ 1R). However, this is a tiny sample and the filter's +1.6pp backtest gain is within noise for n=10. OVER-TIME Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Military Strategy and Technology
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LAB #2287 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33.1 — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS