Imperfect Simulator Interventions: AI for Science

Computational simulators are increasingly used as surrogates for interventional experiments in causal discovery, but real-world simulators inevitably introduce variable omission, intervention noise, and structural misspecification. We show that a two-layer strategy---separating skeleton discovery (the undirected graph of edge presence) from edge orientation---is the key to robust causal structure recovery under such imperfect simulators. Our pipeline, QCSI, uses observational data alone for skeleton estimation (via PC or a nonlinear kernel test), and reserves simulator-generated intervention data exclusively for edge orientation (via MMD asymmetry). This separation prevents intervention noise from contaminating the skeleton, which we prove degrades as $O(k/d)$ under $k$ latent confounders (Theorem~\\ref{thm:discontinuity} and Corollary~\\ref{cor:f1_decay}). A nonlinear kernel variant (QCSI-KCIT) achieves the best performance across all four evaluation domains. Orientation accuracy 1.000 ($k \\leq 3$) and 0.960 ($k = 6$) on synthetic benchmarks, and the highest skeleton F1 on real data (biology: 0.621, engineering: 0.89--0.90). Even under severe simulator imperfection, the pipeline retains its advantage over all baselines (orientation accuracy 0.638 at structural misspecification $\\delta = 1.0$, vs.\\ 0.415 for PC alone). We validate these results on real-world data from a physics simulator ($d = 6$, $n = 330$), a biological signaling benchmark ($d = 11$, $n = 7{,}466$), and an engineering time-series dataset ($d = 3$--$4$, 195 units across five sources), confirming that the two-layer strategy consistently outperforms monolithic approaches (PC, GES, FCI, ICP, IGSP) that mix observational and interventional signals.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22800059
Primary Topic
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Type
preprint
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Imperfect Simulator Interventions: AI for Science

Tsuyoshi Okita
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
preprint

Imperfect Simulator Interventions: AI for Science

Tsuyoshi Okita
preprint en

Abstract

Computational simulators are increasingly used as surrogates for interventional experiments in causal discovery, but real-world simulators inevitably introduce variable omission, intervention noise, and structural misspecification. We show that a two-layer strategy---separating skeleton discovery (the undirected graph of edge presence) from edge orientation---is the key to robust causal structure recovery under such imperfect simulators. Our pipeline, QCSI, uses observational data alone for skeleton estimation (via PC or a nonlinear kernel test), and reserves simulator-generated intervention data exclusively for edge orientation (via MMD asymmetry). This separation prevents intervention noise from contaminating the skeleton, which we prove degrades as $O(k/d)$ under $k$ latent confounders (Theorem~\ref{thm:discontinuity} and Corollary~\ref{cor:f1_decay}). A nonlinear kernel variant (QCSI-KCIT) achieves the best performance across all four evaluation domains. Orientation accuracy 1.000 ($k \leq 3$) and 0.960 ($k = 6$) on synthetic benchmarks, and the highest skeleton F1 on real data (biology: 0.621, engineering: 0.89--0.90). Even under severe simulator imperfection, the pipeline retains its advantage over all baselines (orientation accuracy 0.638 at structural misspecification $\delta = 1.0$, vs.\ 0.415 for PC alone). We validate these results on real-world data from a physics simulator ($d = 6$, $n = 330$), a biological signaling benchmark ($d = 11$, $n = 7{,}466$), and an engineering time-series dataset ($d = 3$--$4$, 195 units across five sources), confirming that the two-layer strategy consistently outperforms monolithic approaches (PC, GES, FCI, ICP, IGSP) that mix observational and interventional signals.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Kyushu Institute of Technology (JP)
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
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Imperfect Simulator Interventions: AI for Science — Tsuyoshi Okita · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS