Energy security risk and the global energy transition under external uncertainty: evidence from 74 countries

As climate change intensifies and the global energy crisis deepens, the energy transition has become a central policy priority for both developed and developing nations. However, rising concerns over energy security, coupled with increasing economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, complicate the transition process. This study investigates the effect of energy security risk (ESR) on energy transition (ET), while considering the moderating roles of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR). A panel dataset covering 74 countries from 1980 to 2022 is analyzed using a two-way fixed effects model, which controls for both country-specific and time-specific heterogeneity. To ensure the robustness of the findings, several checks are performed, including the use of alternative energy transition measures, subsample periods, and endogeneity tests. The empirical results reveal that higher ESR significantly promotes global ET. However, this effect is conditional on external uncertainty. Specifically, EPU weakens the positive effect of ESR on ET, whereas GPR, geopolitical actions, and war strengthen this effect. Heterogeneity analysis further demonstrates that the effect is stronger in countries with higher shares of renewable energy production and in upper-middle-income economies, while it turns negative in energy-exporting countries, likely due to the resource curse, where heavy reliance on fossil fuel exports hampers the adoption of renewable energy. These findings highlight the complex interplay between energy security and external uncertainty in shaping energy transition dynamics. Policy implications include the need for enhanced energy diversification, the stabilization of policy environments to reduce uncertainty-induced distortions, the integration of geopolitical risks into energy planning, and the adoption of differentiated transition strategies for energy-exporting economies.