Identifying key core technologies through multi-source trade and patent data fusion: a dynamic framework and empirical analysis

Purpose This study proposes a dynamic framework for identifying key core technologies by integrating multi-source trade and patent data, addressing a critical gap in innovation management concerning the real-time monitoring and strategic prioritization of technological development trajectories. Design/methodology/approach Using import dependency and international technology gap indicators, the proposed framework identifies key core products. A probabilistic linkage algorithm is applied to map Harmonized System (HS) product codes with International Patent Classification (IPC) codes, enabling the identification of key core technologies through technological application breadth and technological penetration depth. By integrating patent applicant data, the breakthrough potential in key core technology domains is assessed based on application volume and patent significance. Findings Empirical analysis identifies 88 key core product categories concentrated in strategic emerging industries such as next-generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing and biotechnology. Despite domestic technological advances, import reliance persists, with certain ICT sectors experiencing rapidly growing external dependency. Technological progress has not yet translated into significant market price advantages. Ten key core technologies, including H01 L (semiconductor devices), B23 K (welding/laser processing), A61 B (medical diagnostics/surgical instruments) and G01 R (electrical/magnetic measurement), are shaping national economic development. Originality/value This study introduces a novel, dynamic and multidimensional methodology for key core technology identification. It underscores the disconnection between technological advancement and market performance, providing theoretical and empirical foundations for aligning science and technology policy with national security and industrial innovation goals.